With talented guys like Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers. His retirement all but guarantees some drop-off in Kamara's receiving numbers regardless of whether Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill is named the Saints starting quarterback. The notorious "Frankenstein" graphic did him no favors. Projections, Get The Most Out Of Your Jason Wood: Ekeler can single-handedly carry a fantasy team for a week or two. And just how many touchdowns should we expect from an offense with glaring question marks at quarterback and the worst wide receiver depth chart this side of Detroit? Andy Hicks: If people are using a fourth or fifth-round pick on Myles Gaskin, they will end up disappointed. Preseason may help a little. This is a major factor in any expectation that Robinson would be fantasy lineup-relevant without an injury to one of the other options, especially beyond the early weeks of the season. Sigmund Bloom: Johnson was still in line to start after he took a pay cut to stay with the Texans, but then the team added Phillip Lindsay after he and the Broncos parted ways, which embroils Johnson in a frustrating committee backfield in an offense that is likely to be among the league's worst. Malcolm Brown is one of the least-sexy names in fantasy football, but NFL teams sure seem to love him. Robinsons workload will dramatically decrease this season, and drafters arent taking that into account as much as they should. Brown never stopped earning playing time for the Rams despite the team investing early draft capital at the position. Gibson has also been struggling with fumbles in training camp, which have drawn the ire of the Commanders coaching staff. Even when Barkley was a big fantasy hit, it took big plays that can be very mercurial from year to year to make it happen. Single Vegas used other backs last year and pigeonholed Jacobs as a two-down grinder. Unfortunately, he needs to stay hyper-efficient on the ground to stay fantasy relevant, as Ravens running backs have gotten a 70/30 carry split with Jackson over the last three years. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered Ten different running backs had more targets alone than the entire Ravens backfield in 2020. The Raiders declined to exercise Jacobs fifth-year option this offseason, drafted Zamir White in the fourth round, signed Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden, and Kenyan Drake returns from injury. When we go into advanced stats, we can tell even more about Bettis: * Note: The stats are Bettis averages per season, not total career. A veteran, a trade, or another team's roster cut is more likely to be the bigger threat. Take Carter later as a committee back with some possible upside, but he's being overvalued by drafters right now. The final reason why Jerome Bettis is the most overrated RB of all time is because of the offensive line he ran behind. 20 20. He doesnt have that much of a skill set difference with Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed either. The Five Most Overrated Fantasy Football Running Backs in 2019. Pittsburghs front five looks nothing like last years group. There isnt much to like here. Jamal Lewis rushed for nearly 3,400 yards in the first two seasons back from his ACL tear. Nobody should ever try to run like Barry Sanders, because they will never be Barry Sanders. 31 Unsung Running Backs in NFL History By Paul Ladewski on August 3, 2021 Chris O'Meara / AP Photo Before franchise quarterbacks took pro football hostage, there was something known as franchise running backs. 21 RB Sleepers. Thurman Thomas 14. On top of these issues, the Texans added Rex Burkhead, Mark Ingram II, and Philip Lindsay to compete for touches. Brown should have a role, most likely on early downs and at the goal-line, which would sink Gaskins chances of living up to his ADP. There is also the slight concern that he will need some ramp-up time to fully be healed from his ACL tear from a season ago. Tatum Bell isn't the only Lions running back of the 2000s to get snakebitten. There's zero appeal here. Projecting a fourth-round pick to take over the backfield would be fine if there was evidence that this was happening. Sigmund Bloom: There are too many forces that Barkley has to swim upstream again to justify taking Barkley at his lofty ADP. His production waned down the stretch in Carolina last year, and when was the last time we cared about an Atlanta running back in fantasy football anyway? Phil Alexander: Drew Brees is arguably the best screen game quarterback in NFL history. Sigmund Bloom: Anthony Lynn basically told us that he will run a committee of Swift and free agent pick Jamaal Williams when he called Williams his "A" back. Saquon Barkley, NY Giants | Consensus Rankings RB4 | Consensus Projections RB5. He yields passing work to J.D. But drafting him as a high-upside No. Andy Hicks: It is hard for an undrafted rookie running back to succeed in the NFL. Jim Brown 2. Quarterback Lamar Jackson will always cap Dobbins' upside in total carries and goal-line looks. Got the exact same number of carries as Williams. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. Gaskin is a nice player, but the signings by this staff the last two offseasons say they don't have confidence that Gaskin is their guy. There's just not enough upside here to justify taking Johnson anywhere near his ADP and no expectation of consistency in Johnson's usage or the Texans' ability to move the ball week to week. But the Broncos re-signed Melvin Gordon III, which cannot be interpreted as anything short of a re-commitment to a 50/50 committee. Robinson can be successful this year, but he will need luck and to earn the trust of the new coaching staff. I believe he should be elected because he was able to maintain a good level of consistency throughout his 13 years. Its almost always the other way around for top tier RBs. But even if he doesnt, this backfield could be a closer split than many think. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore | Consensus Rankings RB16 | Consensus Projections RB17. Victoria Geary: We should not steer clear of Harris completely for the 2021 season, but we should lower our expectations for a locked-and-loaded RB1 finish. It all depends on who works best in the new scheme and if the scheme works. Gibsons problems with fumbles have been a complaint of Ron Rivera, and he has already shown it is not gone in the preseason. We've seen J.D. There is no upside with drafting Gaskin this high. Chad Parsons: Cohen is coming off an injury, and Damien Williams is a notable veteran addition to the depth chart. Dave Kluge: To close out the 2020 season, Cam Akers saw 21, 29, 15, and 21 carries over his last four games. No one can take away his heroics stepping in for Christian McCaffrey, and he was rewarded in the offseason when Atlanta presumably signed him to be new coach Arthur Smith's feature back. Jordan McNamara: Javonte Williams got a major bump in value in the offseason when Melvin Gordon III was a free agent. 1. Williams can still be a great producer, but at his ADP, I won't be drafting him when he isn't getting the bulk of the touches. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. The only reason Johnson had fantasy value last year was a superhuman effort from Deshaun Watson to move the offense and produce points. And while Johnson sits atop the Houston depth chart, Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram II, and perhaps Rex Burkhead will factor in as well. The current regime did not select Robinson. Andrew Davenport: Fournette's production in the playoffs was artificially inflated by the injury to Ronald Jones II, and part of Fournette's regular-season fantasy production last year was due to his pass-catching role. I'm out. There have been 49 running backs taken among the first 10 picks since 1960, and Byars has the lowest rushing average of the bunch. But just like Logan Thomas, McKissic benefitted from a perfect storm of low average depth of target throws from the quarterbacks last year and the lack of receivers outside of Terry McLaurin. Had more rushing touchdowns last year than Williams. 25 Running Backs Overrated Players 10 Quarterbacks 12 Tight Ends 23 Wide Receivers 25 Running Backs Deep Sleepers 9 Quarterbacks 11 Tight Ends 15 Wide Receivers 13 Running Backs The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. And the Titans got worse this offseason, losing wide receiver Corey Davis, tight end Jonnu Smith, cornerback Adoree' Jackson, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. Gordon has always been a runner that needs a large workload to produce fantasy stats. The Ravens view Gus Edwards and Dobbins as co-starters who are both vital cogs, and the front office rewarded Edwards with a new contract supporting his role. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. The additions of Mike Boone and Javonte Williams haven't done anything to dispel this idea. Drew Davenport: The memories of Johnson dominating in Arizona are still following him into this offseason. He has the ability to handle that role and thrive in the process. First, Johnson turns 30 in December, and considering all the injuries he's dealt with in his NFL career, it's hard to see him aging well. Ben Cummins: Henrys past two monster years were with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, the head coach in Atlanta. His value is trending in the wrong direction. But regardless of quarterback, Kamara is unlikely to return to his 80 reception ways. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. Dave Kluge: Sure, youre not giving up any crazy draft capital to get J.D. Subscription, Early-March Top 10 Defensive Back IDP Rankings, 5 RBs to Buy In Dynasty Before NFL Free Agency. Unfortunately for him, the team replaced the coaching staff that he impressed and signed veteran Carlos Hyde and drafted Travis Etienne in the first round. Lynn will also rely on the hot hand approach - and Swift is more likely to run hot than Williams - but how often will this offense and team play well enough to give Swift a favorable game script. Hes the favorite for running back targets, but the offense doesnt really throw to the running backs. The Raiders have a lot of diverse depth with several different pass catchers, speed backs, and bruisers at the running back position for Jacobs to be drafted at his current ADP. NFL's 5 Most Overrated Running Backs No Name August 6, 2011 Over the past decade, the NFL has really evolved into a passing league. Here are some stats from footballoutsiders.com: * Note: ADY =. McKissic on your fantasy squad, but his outlier of a 2020 season is going to cause some to reach for him heading into 2021. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. O.J. Anthony Amico: The story with Gibson is somewhat similar to that of Jacobs but with a proof of concept already complete. This NFL season, which isn't even over yet, 5 running backs have already rushed for more yards and 16 have more touchdowns. David Johnson, Houston | Consensus Rankings RB27 | Consensus Projections RB31. Ryan Hester: Short of Taysom Hill (if he wins the job), this whole offense is an avoid for fantasy football right now. Victoria Geary: Sanders had the second-worst catch rate in the league last year among running backs, catching only 56% of his targets and dropping eight passes along the way (tied for most with Ezekiel Elliot). Bettis was also a nonfactor in the passing game. Pat Fitzmaurice: The Buccaneers' playoff run was the best four-game stretch for Fournette since the early part of the 2019 season. The 2021 season will either change from the norm of what we have seen from Edmonds in the past or a new role where he flourishes with an increase in volume. Sigmund Bloom: Swift is surely more likely than Jamaal Williams to be the hot hand in the Detroit backfield, but Swift's ADP is too high for any back that has to rely on the hot hand approach to get the majority of the volume in the backfield. Here are the NFL running backs with the most career touchdown runs over 50 yards (based on stats through 2016). The current regime did not select Robinson. The Commanders drafted Brian Robinson Jr on Day 2 of the draft, a bigger back who excelled in pass protection. Matt Waldman: Gaskin displayed underrated skills last year and has become a favorite sleeper in the fantasy community. most overrated running backs of all time. If Robinson claims goal line work, there is an upward battle for returning a value in his ADP. And in fact, some managers are drafting him to be in their fantasy starting lineups in Week 1. They did not pick up his fifth-year option and took Zamir White in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. John Riggins 19. The Top Ten 1 David Beckham David Robert Joseph Beckham is (born 2 May 1975) is an English former professional footballer, the current president & co-owner of Inter Miami CF and co-owner of Salford City.. Is he more talented than Melvin Gordon III at this point in their respective careers? He's a strong talent with some flaws with a better all-around back ahead of him. I just see way too much downside to take a risk on lightning striking twice. Chad Parsons: Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde were both chosen additions by the new Jaguars regime with either Round 1 pedigree (Etienne) or a productive NFL profile (Hyde). Nick Chubb, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB10 | Consensus Projections RB12. Malcolm Brown has also been an underrated commodity for some time now and gets a shot to compete with Gaskin for significant playing time. Jason Wood: Sometimes fate aligns, and that's what happened for Mike Davis last year in Carolina.